IRAN'S UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS

What Trump didn't know he didn't know about the war he started

A cargo vessel, Ali 25, in the Persian Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, seen on March 22, from northern Ras al Khaimah, United Arab Emirates. Maritime traffic through the strait, which conveys about 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas, has mostly come to a halt after the joint US-Israeli war with Iran that began on February 28. / Photo by Getty Images.

In February 2002, former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld famously said, in advance of the disastrous war he led against Iraq, when asked about evidence, or the lack thereof, linking Saddam Hussein’s government to supplying weapons of mass destruction to terrorists:

“Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.”

I have often thought of Rumsfeld’s obfuscating words while reporting on the unforeseen consequences of President Donald Trump’s decision a few weeks ago to go to war once again alongside Israel against Iran. He has at this point bombed himself into a global fuel shortage and economic chaos, along with more concern here and among his allies in Israel about his day-to-day competence. The US and Israeli bombing missions are not contested—Iran has no anti-aircraft defenses—and are continuing today, but there is no sign yet that Iran will surrender.