THE MIDTERMS WILL NOT BE KIND TO THE REPUBLICANS
Backlash against Trump’s strong-arm tactics on immigration could hand Congress to the Democrats
The Democrats have learned the hard way never to underestimate President Donald Trump’s political punch, but he’s not the candidate this fall and fears about the midterms are growing among the political operatives in the White House.
I have been told by an insider that the internal polling numbers are not good. It is assumed that the Democrats will win back the House of Representatives by a large number and there will be a new speaker. Some Republican House candidates have been told not to expect generous party campaign funding. “There is no hope” is the consensus.
The outlook for the Senate is less bleak. The Republicans now hold a three-seat majority, but no less than six GOP seats are considered to be in play. In three of the races—in Alaska, Maine, and North Carolina—there are especially attractive Democratic candidates.
The Democrats also have high hopes in Ohio, where former Senator Sherrod Brown is on the ballot in a special election for the Senate seat formerly held by Vice President JD Vance, and in Iowa, where Senator Joni Ernst is retiring and farming communities are suffering from Trump’s tariff policies. In Georgia, the poll numbers for quiet Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff, who has long been seen as vulnerable, are climbing. The state’s popular Republican governor Brian Kemp stunned the party last May when he announced he wouldn’t be challenging Ossoff.
The Democrats are even optimistic about Texas, where the charismatic State House Member James Talarico is leading the Democratic primary for the Senate while incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn is in a tight primary against far-right Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Anxiety in the White House that both the House and the Senate might fall to the Democrats is acute. Trump’s poll numbers are sliding amid the ongoing protests against ICE in Minnesota and in reaction to the harsh tactics it is using to find and seize undocumented immigrants. The public lying of Cabinet members in defense of ICE has not helped the president or the party. Trump hasn’t delivered on the economy, except for the very rich, and he hasn’t made good on early promises to resolve the disastrous war between Russia and Ukraine.
