THE NEW CEASEFIRE EQUATION

Saudi Arabia’s entry into talks between Israel and Hamas may change Gaza’s future

Israelis walk past a billboard congratulating US President-elect Donald Trump in Jerusalem on November 8. / Photo Ahmad Gharalbi/AFP via Getty Images.

If you happen to be a careful reader of daily newspapers, you may have read that tentative preliminary ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas have begun again in Doha, the capital of Qatar.

The talks, barely underway, may or may not work out, but I have been told by a reliable Israeli that these talks contain a new element: the long-term involvement of Saudi Arabia, and its money, in a rebuilding plan for Gaza; and a tired old element, antithetical to Israel’s political leadership, calling for the Palestinians in the West Bank to have a separate political leadership. That is, a two-state solution, long rejected by Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing colleagues.

In return for its support and money, the Israeli told me, the Saudi leadership would be offered an expanded defense treaty by the United States that would include Saudi Arabia in its nuclear umbrella—its zone of protection—in case Iran, Israel’s last standing enemy, were to acquire a nuclear bomb. The fear that Iran, which is known to be capable of enriching uranium to weapons-grade level, might decide to do so remains vivid in Israel and Washington. There is no evidence, however, that Iran, whose close allies have recently been bombed into submission by Israel, has the desire and capability now or in the near future to build the bomb, but that fact has been consistently ignored by the United States, its allies, and the major US media.

There is an added inducement in the Saudi package, the Israeli told me: the Saudis would look the other way as the Israelis conduct bombing raids, including bombing of military targets inside fractured Syria, and would give Israel access to an airfield within Saudi borders. This would bring Israeli bombs, most supplied by the United States, within minutes, and not hours, of key Iranian targets.

None of this may take place, and probably will not, but there is much for Israel and its prime minister to go after in such talks. Netanyahu, now defending himself three times a week before an Israeli court on long-standing fraud and bribery charges—I’ve been told many of his answers are “I do not recall” or “My wife was taking care of those things”—has been told by Hamas that a few dozen surviving hostages from October 7—more than one hundred are still unaccounted for—would be released in return for a formal ceasefire in Gaza and the release of many Palestinian prisoners jailed by Israel. The bodies of others who did not survive the ordeal would also be returned. (I was told that Israeli intelligence believes as many as forty-three hostages are still alive, but the numbers cannot be verified). The New York Times reported that CIA director Bill Burns returned to Qatar on Wednesday to take part in the resumed ceasefire negotiations. The only successful talks took place in November of 2023, when amid a weeklong ceasefire, 105 hostages were returned, and 240 Palestinian prisoners were released from jails in Israel.

All talks since then have gone nowhere. Mohammed Sinwar, the brother of longtime Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who was slain last October, is not involved in the current talks and is believed, the Israeli said, to still be in the tunnels under Gaza.

The vital new element in the current talks is the pending involvement of Saudi Arabia, the Israeli told me. “Israel and the Saudis are inching along in resettlement talks in Gaza, and there is cautious optimism that there will be a deal that would involve the Saudis making a long-term investment in the rebuilding of Gaza”—once the war with Hamas was settled. One immediate goal, the Israeli said, “was to get on the path for normalization” that would involve Israel’s agreement that “there would be some Palestinian Authority ‘representation’” in the rebuilt Gaza.

The Israeli added that there would be “no hint of a reorganized Palestinian Authority,” the failed vestige of the Oslo Accords, the 1993 agreement calling for a two-state solution. Some names are already being discussed as possible leadership of the new entity in Gaza, if approved by the Saudis and other involved factions.

I should make clear that in my talks with the Israeli there are no immediate plans to improve the day-to-day ability to sustain life in Gaza. Israeli Air Force attacks still occur amid a lack of housing, food, and proper sanitation for the 2.25 million Gazan survivors of the 14-month Israeli response (which has killed at least 45,000 Gazans, including 31,500 women and children) to the Hamas attacks that killed 815 Israelis citizens and nearly four hundreds Israeli soldiers and security officials among 1,200 deaths.